Stridometrics
Sign inTry it free
Quantitative race modeling

A calibrated win probability for every horse in the field.

Stridometrics models every race and turns the field into calibrated win chances, best-bet highlights, and backtested strategies, with the win probability, projected pace, and edge shown for every horse.

See today's free race Get started
Cross-validatedtested on held-out races
Calibratedconfidence matches results
Transparentwin prob, pace & edge per horse

One full race free every day. No account, no card required.

Yesterday's free race, graded
Prairie Meadows · Race 10 · 2026-09-26
Won
Top pick
Kanojo (1) finished 1
1
Kanojo
Win 85.1% · finished 1
2
Jackie Sparrow
Win 10.8% · finished 2
8
Esperanza's Spirit
Win 2.4% · finished 4
4
Foxton
Win 1.2% · finished 3

Win or lose, it stays on the board. We publish first and grade in public.

When we say 30%, it happens about 30% of the time.

We publish every prediction and grade it in public. Here is the full record.

Historical calibration, 2023 to 2025

Three seasons of held-out data: more than 900,000 runners, graded against what actually happened.

0%0%20%20%40%40%60%60%80%80%actual %predicted %0% to 5%: predicted 2.9%, actual 2.4%, n = 237,9245% to 10%: predicted 7.3%, actual 7.2%, n = 225,53710% to 15%: predicted 12.3%, actual 12.6%, n = 150,91715% to 20%: predicted 17.3%, actual 17.8%, n = 98,93220% to 25%: predicted 22.3%, actual 23%, n = 65,94025% to 30%: predicted 27.3%, actual 27.8%, n = 44,11330% to 40%: predicted 34.4%, actual 34.7%, n = 49,44740% to 50%: predicted 44.3%, actual 44.4%, n = 22,02250% to 60%: predicted 54.3%, actual 54.8%, n = 9,46860% to 70%: predicted 64.2%, actual 61.8%, n = 3,93270% to 100%: predicted 76.5%, actual 76.3%, n = 1,866

121,714 races · 910,098 runners

Live calibration, accumulating since launch

Every prediction we've published since going live, graded in public as results come in. It grows every day.

0%0%20%20%40%40%60%60%actual %predicted %0% to 5%: predicted 2.8%, actual 3.2%, n = 9,7115% to 10%: predicted 7.3%, actual 7.8%, n = 8,39910% to 15%: predicted 12.3%, actual 12.9%, n = 5,88715% to 20%: predicted 17.3%, actual 18%, n = 4,08320% to 25%: predicted 22.3%, actual 22.3%, n = 2,79125% to 30%: predicted 27.4%, actual 25.2%, n = 1,88630% to 40%: predicted 34.3%, actual 34.1%, n = 2,11840% to 50%: predicted 44.3%, actual 41.3%, n = 1,04850% to 100%: predicted 59.9%, actual 53.9%, n = 770

5,237 races · 36,693 runners

The toteboard's implied win chances add up to ~123%. The house edge hides in every price. Ours add up to 100%, and they match reality bucket by bucket.

Race of the Day since July 28: top pick won 33 of 55 graded (60%) · model's average predicted chance: 69.5%

A full free race, every day

See today's free race

Get tomorrow's free race by email

One email a morning: today's full race with win probabilities, and yesterday's graded, win or lose. That's it.

One email a day. We never share your address, and unsubscribing takes one click.

Everything you need to find the edge

Win probabilities for every horse

Each runner gets a calibrated chance to win, so you can see at a glance where the value is, not just who the favorite is.

Best-bet highlights

We surface the spots the model likes most, with clear context, so you spend less time digging and more time deciding.

Pace dynamics & projected collapses

Dedicated models read how a race is likely to unfold: early speed, pressure, and projected pace collapses that reshape the finish.

Exotic & multi-race strategy ideas

Discover backtested strategies for exotics and multi-race wagers, framed as ideas you can take, leave, or adapt to your own play.

Built on serious modeling

An ensemble of neural networks, cross-validated and judged on held-out races it never trained on.

How it works

Recent winning selections

Selections we published on Saturday, September 26.

Churchill Downs · Race 6
Pick 6
3-3-1-4-2-10
$43.20 ticket→$1,375.80
Charles Town · Race 2
Pick 4
8-3-4-9
$4.00 ticket→$436.90
Churchill Downs · Race 5
Pick 5
1-3-3-1-4
$48.00 ticket→$357.94
Woodbine · Race 5
Trifecta
5-1-8
$4.00 ticket→$138.65
Prairie Meadows · Race 11
Pick 5
8-4-2-1-4
$15.00 ticket→$150.95
Churchill Downs · Race 9
Trifecta
4-6-3
$4.00 ticket→$85.16

Actual published results for the date shown, graded against the official results for those races. Winning selections only; losing selections are not shown here, and these figures are not a return-on-investment or profitability claim. Payouts are the published mutuel for the winning combination at the ticket cost shown. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Provided for informational and entertainment purposes only.

See the full record, including the losses →

Every track. Pick the window that fits.

One pass covers every track we model, for a day or for 30 days. No per-track add-ons, no long-term commitment, and nothing renews unless you turn it on.

$8Day Passall tracks / one card day$5030-Day Passall tracks / 30 days
Pricing

Frequently asked questions

Can I try it for free?

Yes. Every day we publish one full race free, with a win probability for every horse, and grade it in public the next morning. No account and no card needed. Passes for every race go on sale at launch, and the founders list hears first.

Do you place bets for me?

No. Stridometrics provides analysis, picks, and suggestions as opinions for informational and entertainment purposes. You decide what to do with them and place any wagers yourself, elsewhere.

What does a subscription cover?

A pass covers every track we model for the period you choose: one racing day with the Day Pass, or 30 days with the 30-Day Pass. No per-track add-ons. See the pricing page for details.

Can I cancel anytime?

Yes. Passes simply expire at the end of their period; there is no long-term commitment.

Are the statistics real?

Yes. The historical numbers come from our own tests on races the model never trained on, and everything we have published since launch is graded in public on the calibration page and in the record. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Ready to handicap with an edge?

Start free on a selection of races, then unlock every track.

Try it free